| Obama, Huckabee Win Big In Iowa... What's Next? |
| Friday, January 04, 2008 |
What is next for the candidates that have stayed in the race past Iowa?
DEMOCRATS
Barack Obama:
Wins big in Iowa, now has to keep the charge up into New Hampshire, where Obama has lagged, but has still a pretty strong campaign.
John Edwards:
Has revived a campaign, and has resurfaced as a viable choice for voters nationwide. His campaign is re-energized, but look for him to fall back behind Clinton and Obama as the contests go on.
Hillary Clinton:
Received a huge blow from the Iowa caucuses, where she expected to do better than she ended up doing. Mrs. Clinton goes on limping into New Hampshire where where the ball appears to be in Obama's court to dig the saber deeper. Remember, Hillary polls very well in New Hampshire, and it's still hers to lose.
REPUBLICANS
Mike Huckabee:
Rode the surge built by the faction of the republican party that considers themselves "evangelical", still doesn't have enough sway with voters in New Hampshire and other yankee states, because of his controversial stands on immigration and tax/spending issues. Southern states will respond kindly to his message... Look for New Hampshire to deny him and south carolina to boost him back up again.
Mitt Romney:
This could spell disaster for the Romney campaign, the fact that he was the one that was supposed to win Iowa, and could not do it. His initial comments and attack ads have backfired on him and have made him look like a dirtier politician than he is. If McCain bests Romney in New Hampshire, Romney will be limping through the rest of the primaries across the country.
Ron Paul:
Ron Paul's candidacy has represented the "Maverick" group within the republican primary process, much like and unlike the 2000 candidacy of John McCain when he ran as the outsider. Paul's supporters are far more militant and enthusiastic than most any other candidate in either party for president, his message is a breath of fresh air... But will he be able to create his own surge. His numbers look decent nationally, but they will have to get a boost from somewhere, he needs to see the increase in New Hampshire, which is a state that responds well to libertarian idealogy.
Rudy Giuliani:
Not looking good at all, as expected. He bypassed the traditional first in the nation process and is pretty much skipping the starting gate and trying to leap onto the track. This strategy looks better on paper than it typically plays out. Momentum from a McCain or Huckabee win in New Hampshire could take all the wind out of Giuliani's sails. He is taking a political risk, and he knows it.
Fred Thompson:
Fred's charisma and hoopla from the initial rumors of his candidacy were not enough to make him take off. Iowa caucuses left him in a virtual tie with Sen. John McCain for 3rd place. A strong 3rd place showing is what he needed to power through the rest of the primary process, however he garnered a weak 3rd place showing pretty much tying with John McCain... Which makes Thompson's candidacy virtually dead in the water at this point.. he needs a miracle.
John McCain:
John McCain got exactly what he asked for out of Iowa caucus-goers; which was a strong, consistant showing in the outcome, without even campaigning much there and leaving that night to go back to New Hampshire. That alone, shows you the kind of clout that the Senator will provide across the nation as the primary process gets underway. His chances are still strong and climing, since he climbed atop national polling for the first time in quite a while, and recently just polled #1 in New Hampshire over former Massachussetts governor, Mitt Romney. The "Comeback Kid" as he has been dubbed recently, has the most promising upside going into New Hampshire, despite Huckabee's evangelical surge in Iowa.
Predicition:
McCain Wins New Hampshire
Clinton Wins New Hampshire
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posted by DC @ 04:42   |
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