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McCain Melt Down
Sunday, July 15, 2007

John McCain was my choice for president for the upcoming republican primary set to kick off in 2008. Yes, if the election were held today, I would vote for him... if he was still going to be on the ballot. Ironically, I may have to throw my support behind Rudy Giuliani if McCain does indeed drop out of the running. The former NYC mayor, as you remember was the one I poked fun of on this blog of being a former drag queen. But the ethics of his former staff workers in no way tarnish my view of the distinguished senator from Arizona. McCain's numbers in Iowa, South Carolina, and New Hampshire appear to still be strong despite a recent drop. South Carolina to me being the most important of those big 3. South Carolina usually signals the candidate's staying power and momentum following the NH primary.


SOURCE: http://politics.wizbangblog.com


The latest ARG polls of likely primary voters in the early states shows Hillary Clinton and John McCain leading their respective fields in all three states. Full results at ARG.

In Iowa, Hillary garners 31% support over Edwards' 25% and Obama with only 11%. The only polls that show her at or over 30%, going back to last October, are ARG polls, though. They also show Obama with about half the support other recent polls give him.

On the Republican side, McCain is seen leading Giuliani with 25% to 23, as Romney trails with 16%. However, again: the only poll showing McCain at or above 25% since before Christmas are ARG polls.

The other states have a similar tale to tell:

In New Hampshire, the poll shows Hillary with a commanding lead of 34% to Edwards' 18% and Obama's 15%. Hillary's number is right about the RCP poll average, but ARG and Survey USA have consistently given Hillary high results, while ARG is alone in finding lower support for Obama than the other pollsters.

On the GOP race, McCain is seen ahead with 30% (his highest in any NH poll since January), with Romney at 23% (sharply down from other recent polls) and Giuliani at 21. The RCP average has Romney ahead with 30.0 to McCain's 23.7, so once again ARG is out of line with the others.

~~~~~~~~

In South Carolina, Hillary leads with 34% to Edwards' 30% and Obama with 18%. Obama has been polling in the mid-to-upper 20s here since February, and the support shown for both Clinton and Edwards is their highest of recently reported polls.

McCain is also the beneficiary of ARG in SC with 32%, where they have been the ONLY poll giving him over 30% since before Christmas. The RCP average shows him with a lead, but only with 24% over Rudy's 20 and Fred Thompson's 13.3, with Gingrich at 11.7 and Romney at 9.0.

It sure seems that someone at ARG likes Hillary and McCain, doesn't it?

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posted by DC @ 17:41   1 comments
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